Share this on Facebook (Opens in a new window) Share this on Twitter (Opens in a new window) Share this via Email. Experts are warning we'll see a "red mirage" in some states, and a "blue mirage" in others. Unfortunately, circumstances are such that we might well face a confused and chaotic situation on election night that he can, and undoubtedly will, exploit to his advantage. Forget the red and blue election map. Here's why those first vote totals may be pretty misleading on Tuesday night. Though a red mirage may only last a day or two, it could be enough for Trump to persuade the country that what it sees, based on the familiar fiction of election night, is the full story. So we are all going to be in suspense for a week? "Yes, it The Trump “We believe that on Election Night, we are going to see Donald Trump in a stronger position than the reality actually is,” Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn said, calling the phenomenon a “red mirage.” (As a reader pointed out, The Red Mirage is also the title of a novel by I. Trump’s voters are more likely to vote on Election Day, so their votes may be counted quicker. President Trump’s substantial lead in votes counted on election night — and his willingness to use that lead to falsely claim victory — did not surprise the American public, thanks in part to Hawkfish. JOSH MENDOLSOHN, CEO OF HAWKFISH ...POLITICAL DATA AND TECH FIRM THAT DOES COMPUTER MODELING OF ELECTION TRENDS. The night began with a wave of Trump red crashing across the coasts of Florida, hit by a crosscurrent from the West that buoyed the Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaign, forming a … This problem is known as "the red mirage." This problem is known as "the red mirage." In one modeling outcome, Trump could see a projected 408 electoral votes on election night… Current and former Pennsylvania officials and activists say that the antidote to the “red mirage” is as simple as the scenario itself. The Red Mirage theory, that Trump will have a significant lead on Election Night, but will lose when mail-in ballots are counted, is the excuse for Democrats to … He found that Democratic (Polling averages since then have shifted only slightly, so the model is still instructive.) This election was also unique because of … Wednesday, September 2, 2020 Democrat Operative Warns of ‘Red Mirage’ Landslide for DJT on Election Night Would it surprise anyone that a Democrat operative is predicting that Joe Biden will win the presidency.....only days later and after all the mail-in ballots get counted? Similarly, in Minnesota, there might be a "red mirage" that misleadingly looks like a Trump lead. Download. Red Mirage. The likely confusion, chaos and charges of election fraud created by a Red Mirage will undoubtedly be maliciously amped by Trump among his low- and uninformed voters. On election night, Trump would appear to be well on his way victory. The “Red Mirage” referenced by Clark refers to a very real possibility that election results coming in on Nov. 3 make it look like Trump is leading Democrat Joe Biden, or at least doing better than polls predicted. However, he could lose when all the votes were eventually counted. One of the Hawkfish model’s scenarios, based on polling averages reported by FiveThirtyEightin August, is shown below. Some people call this the "blue mirage" or the "red shift." It projects that early in the evening, as Election Day voting results are announced, it would appear that Trump was winning with ( Axios ) It is the speculation of the article that these will favor Biden, hence Trump's apparent victory on Election night will have been a "mirage." In a report released Tuesday, Hawkfish, a Democratic-aligned data and technology firm founded by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, warned of a "red mirage" on election night … Some people call this the “red mirage” or the “blue shift,” where early results favor Trump but later ballots even things out and might even put Biden ahead once all the results are tallied. The lesson: it will be easier than ever for initial vote tallies to lead untrained eyes astray. I can just hear my Democrat relatives now. The Case for Wearing a Mask and Voting In Person In battleground states, vote by mail could contribute to Trump’s “red mirage” lead on election night. This is when the first waves of results disproportionately favor Biden, only to be followed by more Trump-friendly ballots later on. A blue mirage is not expected to last long in either state. Experts say they expect Florida and North Carolina to finish counting most of their mail-in and in-person ballots before the end of the night. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, mail-in ballots cannot be counted until Election Day. B race yourselves, anxious Democrats: things could look very ugly as vote-counting begins on Election Day. An Election Night ‘Red Mirage’ Is a Nightmare for Democrats Beware the 'blue mirage' and the 'red mirage' on election night Analysis: Don't fall for what could be misleading early numbers or punditry. Share. The “red mirage” was explained like this. Voting experts are warning people to be aware of a red or blue mirage in early results as they could be misleading than the final outcome. The article presented a right-wing narrative regarding what political data firm Hawfish this week called a "red mirage"—election night results which could give the appearance of a Trump victory before mail-in ballots have been tallied. According to his company’s number-crunching, Trump will win in a landslide on election night. “When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,” Mendelsohn said. Dave Wasserman Nov 03, 2020 4:00 PM ET. Shaped the 2020 Election Narrative. Delays in tallying mail-in votes could lead to a “red mirage” on November 3, in which it appears Trump won handily and provides him an opportunity to dismiss later results as “rigged.” How to spot a red or blue 'mirage' in early election night results Election night will be an unusual experience this year. When counties reported results from Election Day polling places that night, Republican Chris Jacobs led Democrat Nate McMurray 68 percent to 30 percent. The data firm Hawkfish, which was founded by former New York mayor and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, recently studied these scenarios and is warning the public about what they call the "red mirage." (Bloomberg now supports Biden, and Hawkfish is working for pro-Biden super PACs.) The night began with a wave of Trump red crashing across the coasts of Florida, hit by a crosscurrent from the West that buoyed the Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaign, forming a … When the Democratic Party comes up with a narrative that it wants to push, it can always rely on supporters in the leftist media to promote the partisan talking points. “We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” he said. A. R. The most important map to watch on Election Night is one that shows when each state starts counting its early ballots. Mendelsohn said he is "sounding the alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump." How annoying. Early results that pop up shortly after the polls close might look very different from the final outcome, because of unprecedented levels of mail-in ballots and early voting due to the coronavirus pandemic. Just imagine Nov 4, election night is over but no one knows what to think because there are so many mail in ballots that you can't actually say who won yet. With scarcely two months left before Nov. 3, a respected Democratic data-analytics firm tells Axios that “it’s highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted.” Hawkfish, the political data agency funded by Michael Bloomberg, is predicting “chaos” as the presidential election votes are tallied, Axios reports. A "red mirage." The Red Mirage theory, that Trump will have a significant lead on Election Night, but will lose when mail-in ballots are counted, is the excuse for Democrats to spend weeks trying to count ballots in Democrat areas that arrive late or that don’t comply with the rules, and to disqualify valid ballots in Republican areas. The left and its media allies are warning Americans not to expect a winner on election night. Donald Trump claims prediction of 'red mirage' giving him a landslide election night victory only for mail-in ballots to hand the White House to Joe Biden days later would be proof of … 'Red mirage': Democrat firm warns mail-in ballots may create false Trump landslide illusion on election night Again, viewers should be prepared for a blue mirage followed by a red swing—but there is a good chance that, unless the margin is razor-thin, we’ll get a call in Florida on Election Night. Landslide alert? For example: In one scenario, Trump could be up 408-130 in electoral votes with 15% of the mail ballots counted on election night. The possibility of Donald Trump declaring a premature victory on Election Night necessitates a look back at the contested election of 1876 and the compromise that settled it … The phenomenon was first identified by Edward Foley of Ohio State University in 2013. A Democratic analytics firm warns Axios of what it calls a "red mirage" on Nov. 3. Facebook Joins “Red Mirage” Plot: Won’t Allow “False Victory” Claims From Trump on Election Night Sep 3, 2020 by News Wars This allows time for mail-in “ballots” to swing election … A little-covered June special election for a congressional seat in the Buffalo, New York, area offered a preview of what a "red mirage" could look like. Forget the red and blue election map. The Red Mirage theory, that Trump will have a significant lead on Election Night, but will lose when mail-in ballots are counted, is the excuse for Democrats to … A screenshot from an episode of Axios on HBO detailing the "Red Mirage" theory. In American politics, a blue shift, also called a red mirage, is an observed phenomenon under which counts of in-person votes are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Republican Party (whose party color is red), while provisional votes or absentee ballots, which are often counted later, are more likely than overall vote counts to be for the Democratic Party (whose color is blue). In those states, a "red mirage" of Trump-heavy Election Day votes could linger until larger metro counties report huge tranches of early ballots later in the evening. President Trump, who appears to be surging in the polls, will be in the lead on Election Night, but that’s just a “red mirage,” according to Josh Mendelsohn, the CEO of a … A "red mirage" on election night and a post-election "blue shift" could lead to an unprecedented constitutional crisis just as the Supreme Court is in turmoil. The "mirage" being red means that Trump will appear to have won on election night, but will lose in the days following when a stream of mail-in votes for Biden either arrive late in the mails and still are counted or else are obtained Yet another invented term for the MSM To repeat over and over, convincing the lemmings that a "red mirage" in elections is an actual, real thing. Deciphering the 'red mirage,' the 'blue shift,' and the uncertainty surrounding election results this November By Marshall Cohen Updated 6:49 PM ET, Tue September 1, 2020 If it is postmarked on election day (Tuesday) 80% will not arrive until Friday, but some won't arrive until the following Monday. US election 2020 results: Why Trump’s lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania collapsed For most of election night, Donald Trump had huge leads in … The issue (as has been pointed out) is not votes mailed after election day but rather the fact that in most states (at least that I'm aware of) the mail in vote counting doesn't start until the polls close. Facebook will weed out “false victory” claims as part of Red Mirage Plot Mark Zuckerburg says Facebook will weed out “false victory” claims during the presidential election, which will give Democrats the opportunity to keep President Trump from claiming victory while they count more mail-in “ballots” that will, of course, swing the election to Biden. The "Red Mirage" and Other Election Night Coverage Catastrophes. Beware the "blue mirage" and the "red mirage" on election night. The red mirage is the temporary advantage that Republicans appear to have during the brief window between when a state has counted all of its … With the election night landscape changing for 2020, we offer the following seven pointers, aimed at the public and media alike, for an informed, and informative, viewing of the election results. An Election Night ‘Red Mirage’ Is a Nightmare for Democrats Cost of flood damage to U.S. homes will increase by 61% in 30 years Pace of US vaccinations has slowed, hampered by snow and power outages Now I suppose if Trump and Biden and Harris and the Democrats and 1. Election night results may be a ‘red mirage’ Trump is laying the groundwork for challenging the results of the November elections if the results do not go his way. But in the overnight hours as ballots were counted, Biden would slowly take the lead so that by morning, Biden would Since many states will allow ballots postmarked by Election Day to count, the results could shift in Biden's direction slowly over the course of several days as mail-in ballots are processed. While Michigan did recently pass a … With President Donald Trump consistently trying to sow doubt around this year's US general-election results, a data firm that works with Democrats is … Wylie.) The most important map to watch on Election Night is one that shows when each state starts counting its early ballots. : “We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Mendelsohn said.