In the next few months, the phased restart of plants outside Hubei (and the slower progress of plants within Hubei) is likely to lead to challenges in securing critical parts. Something went wrong. This is a critical moment. Finally, the pandemic has forced a reckoning for many between the profit motive and a company’s social purpose. The first COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized for use and dissemination has begun in several countries, marking a major turning point in the pandemic and bringing fresh optimism for a next normal in the new year. But we focused mainly on healthcare systems. tab, Engineering, Construction & Building Materials, Travel, Logistics & Transport Infrastructure, McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility. There are many ways to lead, but regardless of the type of business or geography, ten actions can form a path to emerge stronger from the crisis. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is no exception. For the long haul, our new report argues that one essential element of growth is renewable energy. Customers that have prebooked logistics capacity may not use it; customers may compete for prioritization in receiving a factory’s output; and the unpredictability of the timing and extent of demand rebound will mean confusing signals for several weeks. This article was edited by Dennis Swinford, a senior editor in the Seattle office. Last Updated: 12/08/2020. 3 Women and children have also suffered immensely from the global pandemic. COVID-19 continues to spread rapidly around the world. In particular, escalation mechanisms may be understood in theory, but companies are finding them hard to execute in reality, as the facts on the ground don’t always conform to what it says in the manual. Working-age adults remain concerned about their parents and older friends, neighbors, and colleagues, and take steps to ensure their safety. In addition to being laid off and furloughed at higher rates than their male counterparts during the pandemic, women are—notably, for the first time in our research on the topic—considering downshifting their careers or leaving the workforce altogether at staggering rates. Lena H. Sun, “CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating,” Washington Post, April 21, 2020, washingtonpost.com. We think that companies are by and large pursuing the right set of responses, as shown in Exhibit 4. While there are positive examples from the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the public-health community could learn more from experts in targeting and tailoring political and consumer-marketing messages. As CEOs continue to develop their COVID-Exit strategies, we analyzed how two companies have found a successful COVID-Exit path with transformations that balance portfolio moves and performance improvements. Our industry experts explored the future of fashion, how the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted mobility and affected demand for in vitro diagnostics, and how Australia’s COVID-19 response can inform decision makers around the world. Companies are advised to make sure that three capabilities—competitive advantage, capacity, and conviction—are up to snuff before pursuing COVID-19-era mergers. As inventories are run down faster, parts shortages are likely to become the new reason why plants in China cannot operate at full capacity. In some cases, medium or longer-term stabilization may be warranted, which calls for updates to demand planning, further network optimization, and searching for and accelerating qualification of new suppliers. New research from the McKinsey Global Institute points to another area of hope in the face of the current crisis: a renewed social contract. The next normal will look unlike any in the years preceding the coronavirus, the pandemic that changed everything. understanding what to do and executing well. Restaurants and shops are only slowly reopening; many cannot pay their rent. Immediate and effective response is, of course, vital. In contrast, the importance of testing has been clear from the earliest days, but many countries have faced operational challenges in ramping up their capacity. They also need to change working norms, making remote work practical and simple whenever possible. Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Regions with significant ongoing transmission should expect that restarting economic activity will only lead to more transmission. On the economic front, the COVID-19 crisis presents the greatest challenge in a decade for the auto sector. Practice the plan. 86% of SME owners say that their business will survive Covid-19 - … The threat of COVID-19 to lives and livelihoods will fully resolve only when enough people are immune to the disease to blunt transmission, either from a vaccine or direct exposure. It can also allow for more nuanced risk assessments, for example, to determine who can safely access senior-care facilities. With the end in sight, or at least in fuzzy focus, companies are thinking ahead. Pockets of resistance against wearing masks and complying with other measures notwithstanding, the global public health response has saved millions of lives. Economic impact. Once completed, this report will be processed according to emergency priorities. This week, we were delighted to sit down with two executives cutting remarkable paths through the pandemic. “Rapid expert consultation on SARS-CoV-2 survival in relation to temperature and humidity and potential for seasonality for the COVID-19 pandemic,” National Academies Press, April 7, 2020, nap.edu. For example, in the United States, basketball star Stephen Curry asked questions of infectious-disease expert Anthony Fauci live on Instagram. Matt Craven, MD, is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office. In “Rethinking the future of American capitalism,” James Manyika, Gary Pinkus, and Monique Tuin trace the extraordinary achievements of the American system and the work still to come, including the need to rectify unequal and increasingly disparate outcomes for people and places, increasing “superstar” effects, and declining investment in public goods. While much of the media narrative is about reopening, many countries, including several of the largest emerging economies, are still on the “upslope” of the epidemic, with daily case counts increasing (Exhibit 3). For example, it now appears that the virus probably won’t be highly seasonal, given the recent rapid growth in a number of hot spots in the Southern Hemisphere. COVID-19: Get a free no-symptoms test | Advice and support. When history books one day recount the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, it may well be a tale of human ingenuity and adaptiveness. Businesses are keeping one eye firmly on the here and now but also tentatively looking ahead to what’s shaping up as a great reset. The ubiquitous face mask does more than protect against viral spread; it also changes the way we look at one another—and thus symbolizes the mystery of customer behavior in the pandemic. Four other major transmission complexes are now established across the world: East Asia (especially South Korea, with more than 7,000 cases, as well as Singapore and Japan), the Middle East (centered in Iran, with more than 6,500 cases), Europe (especially the Lombardy region in northern Italy, with more than 7,300 cases, but with widespread transmission across the continent), and the United States, with more than 200 cases. Even places with strong initial responses like Hong Kong and Singapore have faced challenges as they reopen. Start with the global pandemic’s front line: the healthcare sector. In consumer goods, the steep drop in consumer demand will likely mean delayed demand. Report a business or scam during coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic How to report a business to Trading Standards who's not following Government directives about social distancing or being closed. protecting both the wearer and those around them. But it remains to be seen how these factors will play out and the direct impact they will have. And in Australia, businesses would be wise to understand today’s more mindful consumers. Perhaps the biggest uncertainty for supply-chain managers and production heads is customer demand. The best surveillance systems seamlessly combine data from traditional sources with newer data sets, such as anonymized mobility tracking—and do so in near real time. We want your feedback on how businesses are implementing COVID safety rules, to reduce the spread. As that moment comes closer—let us hope—three new research efforts show, first, how leaders can seize the moment to support their employees by building on the trust their early efforts have engendered and, second, how they can engage employees through clear and inspiring communication. We may need to rethink the current model of home isolation and develop modified strategies for mild and asymptomatic cases given that isolation can prove difficult for many. Case management has improved. Jill Terreri Ramos, “Fact-check: Did countries that reopened see a spike in coronavirus?,” Austin American-Statesman, April 20, 2020, statesman.com; Suzanne Sataline, “Covid-19’s resurgence in Hong Kong holds a lesson: Defeating it demands persistence,” Statnews, March 26, 2020, statnews.com; Scott Neuman, “Emergency declared in Japanese prefecture hit by 2nd wave of coronavirus infections,” NPR, April 13, 2020, npr.org; “Japan’s Abe extends state of emergency to May 31,” Al Jazeera, May 4, 2020, Aljazeera.com; Abigail Leonard, “This Japanese island lifted its coronavirus lockdown too soon and became a warning to the world,” Time, April 24, 2020, time.com; “AP photos: Beijing slowly reopens amid falling virus cases,” Associated Press, March 25, 2020, ap.com; Philip Oltermann, “Germans urged to stay at home amid fears Covid-19 infection rate is rising again,” Guardian, April 28, 2020; theguardian.com; Adam Rogers, “The Asian countries that beat Covid-19 have to do it again,” Wired, April 6, 2020; wired.com. Many countries are still far short of where they need to be on testing, and contact-tracing programs remain a patchwork. Wastewater sampling, used for decades to monitor for polio, appears to detect viral increases of COVID-19 up to six days earlier than diagnostic tests of individuals do. States with more cases generally plan to reopen later, but there are exceptions. Among the most powerful is investment in inclusive growth and unlocking the maximum productive potential of all people in communities. Some of this may be advisable anyway, absent the current crisis, to ensure resilience in their supply chain—an ongoing challenge that the COVID-19 situation has clearly highlighted. Limited evidence from US states suggests that mask mandates are correlated with greater reductions in new cases than mask recommendations are. And they improve over time as a design principle, incorporating new sources of data and improving quality to reduce friction in the response. Digital upends old models. Planning now will increase the chance of a successful vaccine rollout. 13 When submitting a non-compliance complaint, please provide the following: Captains rely on the “chief of the boat” to take the pulse of the crew and represent their needs. For the full set of our latest perspectives, please see the attached full briefing materials, which we will update regularly. The auto industry is one of the world’s largest and has been devastated by the pandemic: sales may drop by 20 to 30 percent in 2020, and we estimate that profits will fall by $100 billion. Consumer confidence, especially in those complexes, may erode, and could be further weakened by restrictions on travel and limits on mass gatherings. In our new survey of some 300 C-level executives, we look at the ways that the corporate center is evolving. by Tom Latkovic, Leah Pollack, and Jordan VanLare, MD. This week, the McKinsey Global Institute looked at the effects not only of COVID-19 but of all manner of disruptions, including natural disasters, geopolitical uncertainty, climate risk, cyberattacks, and more. In this scenario, airlines miss out on the summer peak travel season, leading to bankruptcies (FlyBe, the UK regional carrier, is an early example) and consolidation across the sector. Frequent hand washing and environmental cleaning reduce the transmission of COVID-19. To aid decision makers, we have developed scenarios, based on three likely paths for the spread of the virus and the public health response, and three potential levels of effectiveness for governmental economic response (Exhibit 3). This week we documented many of the COVID-19-related shifts taking place in Europe. Local use of these measures varies considerably—physical distancing may be near-impossible in crowded urban settings, for example, and the apps and digital tools for contact tracing like those used in China may not be acceptable in other parts of the world. The disruption of the current outbreak is shifting industry structures. What distinguishes them, in a word, is agility. Executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Another factor: five big-tech companies now make up 21 percent of the S&P 500, one of the world’s most-watched markets. Report a concern about a business or venue non-compliance with COVID-19 rules Despite the numerous fiscal, economic and social challenges Ghana has faced, the country … Governments and healthcare professionals will need to collaborate on an incredible scale to allot and deliver vaccine doses and to address challenges from storage and transport to administration and data tracking. We summarize them here and invite you to take in the full case in our collection. Some countries have seen significant resistance to such changes, particularly those around physical-distancing measures and facial-covering mandates. It now appears likely that some places will experience a local resurgence as restrictions are lifted and economies reopen. A critical challenge for companies in the postcrisis era will be articulating clear, meaningful, and authentic purposes. Set up a cross-functional COVID-19 response team. Some that were effective at initial containment, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, have seen resurgence and are implementing additional measures to address it. Despite the apparent simplicity of testing and tracing, practitioners learned the hard way through early missteps. Yet as our latest report on inclusion and diversity argues, that would place companies at a disadvantage: they could not only face a backlash from customers and talent now but also, down the line, fail to better position themselves for growth and renewal. Each of these transmission complexes has sprung up in a region where millions of people travel every day for social and economic reasons, making it difficult to prevent the spread of the disease. Given the outsize role that businesses are taking in the crisis response in numerous countries, many of the ideas are as relevant to private-sector leaders as to those in the public sector. We have updated our comprehensive COVID-19 briefing materials. As companies continue to enforce travel restrictions and workers resort to virtual meetings, travel-industry players are looking to rebound from the crisis, but it may be a years-long road to recovery. For instance, temperature checks may not be the most effective form of screening, given that the virus may transmit asymptomatically. Some companies are pursuing their coronavirus responses strictly within organizational silos (for example, the procurement team is driving supply-chain efforts, sales and marketing teams are working on customer communications, and so on). Make use of pooled testing to boost capacity where needed, especially in low-prevalence settings. Has working from home succeeded only because it is viewed as temporary, not permanent? Copy Link to Article . Seemingly every consumer behavior has been altered by the crisis; companies need to adapt to big changes in how people get their information, what and where they buy, and how they experience shopping. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Effective public-health communication can accelerate the adoption of new behaviors. Africa, Oceania, and some Asian countries also experience widespread epidemics, though countries with younger populations experience fewer deaths in percentage terms. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Also consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. Start with The McKinsey Download Hub, with McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID-19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Two more are coming as part of Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC. Test-positivity rates above 5 percent suggest that too many cases are being missed. Economic recovery team reports COVID effects on small business in Billings. In our new report, we find that successful control of the virus is the key to unlocking the economy, by restoring the confidence consumers need to reengage in economic activity. Our new research examines the struggles of US small businesses in three sectors (restaurants, manufacturing, and retailing) that could be facing a long, hard recovery (exhibit). Never miss an insight. Mask Bylaws & Businesses To report a business that is not complying with mask bylaws or public health measures, please call the Toronto Public Health hotline at 416-338-7600. Lower demand could slow growth of the global economy between 1.8 percent and 2.2 percent instead of the 2.5 percent envisioned at the start of the year. This week’s update offers scenarios in which demand might revive, and the ways that companies can adapt while also preparing the enterprise to emerge stronger in the next normal. Here are the five emerging trends that private-sector leaders need to monitor. From a common purpose to rapid decision making to empowered local teams, these companies found ways to respond quickly to COVID-19. Successful companies have five traits in common. McKinsey’s healthcare researchers also took a close look at the US blood supply, which was fragile before the pandemic and is now critical. McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments around the world. Stabilize the supply chain. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. In total, the most-affected countries represent nearly 40 percent of the global economy. In times of crisis, all eyes focus on the insurance sector. Upskilling and reskilling the workforce will become even more of a priority. This briefing note was edited by Dana Sand, an assistant managing editor in the Atlanta office. “Reimagining marketing in the next normal,” for example, documents six of the biggest shifts emerging from COVID-19. A new podcast this week examined those same supply-chain issues, in the context of McKinsey Global Institute’s August 2020 report on risk and resilience. We go on to more specific considerations, such as the need to make big moves fast and to be willing to rethink entire portfolios, including where work gets done. This week we also explored how European marketing-and-sales leaders are navigating the effects of the pandemic, the domino effect for improving sales returns on investment, disruption that is reshaping construction-material distribution, and steps that distributors can take to stabilize operations and outperform competitors. The coming revolution in mental health in the new York office many global fashion may! Out what we can and can ’ t know the postcode, click on ‘ Locate on instead! Senior-Care facilities is based on our analysis, three goals are essential outbreaks and high-risk! Of change ; it tells US how fast the epidemic assistant managing editor in the normal... Gender equality news about a business who is not following infection control measures ; not collecting test and trace,! 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